Global News in Oil, Gas, and Energy as of December 5, 2025: Price Dynamics for Oil and Gas, OPEC+ Policies, Sanctions, Energy Market in Europe and Asia, Russian Energy Sector, Renewable Energy, and Coal. Analytics for Investors and Industry Participants.
The recent developments in the fuel and energy sector (TЭK) as of December 5, 2025, indicate a mixed dynamics in global markets amidst cautious hopes for peaceful resolutions and persistent risks of oversupply. Global oil prices remain near multi-month lows: Brent picks hover around $62–63 per barrel, while American WTI is approximately $59. This is significantly lower than mid-year levels and reflects a combination of factors – from expectations of progress in peace talks to signs of an oversupply situation. Conversely, the European gas market enters winter relatively confidently: underground gas storage (UGS) in EU countries is over 85% full, providing a substantial buffer, while wholesale prices (TTF index) remain below €30 per MWh, significantly lower than peaks in previous years.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions surrounding energy persist. The West continues to intensify its sanctions pressure on the Russian energy sector – the European Union recently legally approved a phased rejection of Russian gas imports by 2027 and an accelerated reduction of remaining oil supplies from Russia. Attempts at diplomatic conflict resolution have so far yielded minimal results, thus supply limitations and risks remain in place. Within Russia, authorities are extending emergency measures to stabilize the domestic fuel market following an autumn deficit of gasoline and diesel, strictly limiting the export of fuel products. At the same time, the global energy sector is quickening the "green" transition: investments in renewable energy are hitting records, with new incentives being implemented, although traditional resources – oil, gas, and coal – continue to play a key role in the energy balance of most countries. Full analytics of the situation is available for investors and industry participants.
Oil Market: Hopes for Peace and Oversupply Pressure Prices
As December begins, oil prices are under pressure and show volatility near local lows. The North Sea Brent blend, after relative stability in autumn, has fallen to around $62 per barrel, and WTI futures have dropped to $59. Current prices are approximately 15% lower than a year ago. The market is factoring in a likely easing of restrictions on Russian oil should peace talks between Moscow and Washington prove successful, which diminishes the geopolitical premium in pricing. At the same time, fears of oversupply are rising: industry data indicates an increase in crude oil and fuel inventories, with a seasonal decline in demand at year-end and a slowdown in the Chinese economy limiting consumption. The OPEC+ alliance confirmed on November 30 that it would maintain current production quotas until the end of 2026, signaling an unwillingness to increase supply and risk a price collapse. As a result, the cumulative influence of these factors has shifted the market balance toward oversupply. Prices remain at low levels as market participants assess the prospects of a peace agreement and further actions by OPEC+ in response to the evolving situation.
Gas Market: Winter Begins with Sufficient Stocks and Moderate Prices
The European natural gas market approaches the peak heating season without sharp upheavals. Thanks to timely fuel injections and a mild winter start, EU countries are entering December with significantly filled gas storage and relatively low prices, reducing the threat of a repeat of the crisis incidents of 2022. Key factors in the current situation on the European gas market include:
- High UGS Fill Levels: According to industry monitoring, the average level of gas storage in the EU exceeds 85%, significantly above the norm for early winter. The accumulated reserves create a reliable "safety cushion" in case of prolonged cold weather and supply interruptions.
- Record LNG Imports: European consumers continue to actively purchase liquefied natural gas on the global market. Reduced LNG demand in Asia has freed up additional volumes for Europe, partially compensating for the loss of pipeline supplies from Russia. Consequently, LNG inflow remains high, helping to keep prices moderate.
- Moderate Demand and Diversification: Mild weather at the start of winter and energy-saving measures are restraining gas consumption growth. At the same time, the EU is diversifying its sources: gas imports from Norway, North Africa, and other regions have increased, strengthening energy security and reducing dependence on Russian supplies.
- Price Stabilization: Current wholesale gas prices are nearly three times lower than last year's extreme peaks. The Dutch TTF index is holding around €28–30 per MWh. The loading of storage and market balancing have prevented new price spikes, even amidst reduced gas imports from Russia.
Thus, Europe is entering winter with a significant buffer in the gas market. Even in the event of colder weather, accumulated stocks and flexible supply chains via LNG can mitigate potential shocks. However, in the long term, the situation will depend on weather conditions and global demand, especially if energy needs in Asia begin to rise again.
Russian Market: Fuel Shortages and Extension of Export Restrictions
In autumn 2025, Russia faced an acute issue of motor fuel (gasoline and diesel) shortages in the domestic market due to a confluence of several factors. Rising seasonal demand (the harvest campaign increased fuel consumption) coincided with a reduction in supply from refineries, some of which have cut production due to unscheduled maintenance and drone attacks on infrastructure. In several regions, gasoline supply disruptions occurred, prompting the government to intervene swiftly to stabilize the situation. Authorities have enacted emergency measures that continue to be in place:
- Ban on Gasoline Exports: The Russian government imposed a temporary complete ban on the export of automobile gasoline by all producers and traders (except for supplies under intergovernmental agreements) back in late August. Initially, the measure was to last until October, but its effectiveness has been extended at least until December 31, 2025, due to ongoing tensions in the domestic fuel market.
- Export Restrictions on Diesel: Simultaneously, the export of diesel fuel for independent traders is banned until the end of the year. Oil companies with their own refineries retain the possibility of limited diesel fuel exports to avoid halting processing. This partial ban aims to ensure adequate supply of petroleum products within the country and prevent a recurrence of shortages.
According to relevant officials, the fuel crisis that emerged in autumn is of a local and temporary nature. Reserve supplies have been mobilized, and oil refining is gradually recovering after unplanned downtimes. By the start of winter, the situation has stabilized somewhat: wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel have retreated from September's peaks, although they remain above last year's levels. The government's priority is to ensure full coverage of the domestic market and prevent a new price surge, so strict export restrictions may be extended into 2026 if necessary.
Sanctions and Policies: Increasing Western Pressure and Finding Compromises
The collective West continues to tighten its policy towards Russia's TЭK, showing no signs of easing sanctions. On December 4, EU leaders finalized a plan for a full and indefinite rejection of imported Russian pipeline gas by the end of 2026 (with a halt to LNG purchases by 2027) as part of a new sanctions package. This step aims to deprive Moscow of a significant portion of export revenues in the medium term. The initiative has faced opposition from Hungary and Slovakia, which are dependent on Russian resources, but their objections were unable to block the overall EU decision.
Simultaneously, the United States is intensifying its own pressure. The Trump administration takes a hard stance against countries cooperating with Russia in the energy sector. In particular, Washington imposed increased tariffs on a range of Indian goods in 2025 partly in response to India's purchases of Russian oil and signaled the possible review of exemptions for Venezuela. These moves create uncertainty around the future supply of Venezuelan oil to the global market. Meanwhile, direct talks between Moscow and Washington regarding the cessation of conflict have made no significant progress—the recent consultations in Moscow with U.S. emissaries concluded without breakthroughs. Combat operations in Ukraine continue, and all previously imposed restrictions on the export of Russian energy resources remain in effect. Western companies continue to avoid new investments in Russia. Thus, the geopolitical confrontation surrounding energy persists, adding long-term risks and uncertainties to the market.
Asia: India and China Focus on Energy Security
The largest developing economies in Asia—India and China—continue to focus on securing their energy security, balancing between the benefits of cheap imports and external pressure. Asian countries are actively utilizing opportunities to purchase energy resources on favorable terms while concurrently developing internal projects and collaboration. The current situation is as follows:
- India: Under Western pressure, New Delhi temporarily reduced its purchases of Russian oil in late autumn; however, overall, India remains one of Moscow's key clients. Indian refineries continue to process discounted Urals oil, covering domestic fuel needs and exporting surplus petroleum products. President Vladimir Putin arrived for a visit to India on December 4, highlighting close ties between the countries. It is expected that on December 5, during a summit in New Delhi, the parties will discuss new agreements for long-term oil supply and potential gas projects. Russia also seeks to increase imports of Indian goods to balance trade, despite U.S. sanctions pressure (including high tariffs on Indian exports due to collaboration with Russia in the oil sector).
- China: Despite the economic slowdown, Beijing retains a key role in the global energy market. Chinese companies are diversifying import channels: additional long-term contracts for liquefied natural gas procurement (including from Qatar and the U.S.) are being concluded, supplies of pipeline gas from Central Asia are expanding, and investments in overseas oil and gas extraction are increasing. Simultaneously, China is gradually increasing its own hydrocarbon production, although this is still insufficient to fully meet domestic demand. The country also continues to make large-scale coal purchases to secure its energy system during the transitional period. Both India and China are actively investing in the development of renewable energy; however, in the coming years, they have no intention of abandoning traditional sources—oil, gas, and coal—which still constitute the basis of their energy balance.
Renewable Energy: Record Investments with Government Support
The global transition to clean energy continues to gain momentum, establishing new records for investment and capacity addition. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global investments in renewable energy exceeded $2 trillion in 2025—more than double the total investments in the oil and gas sector during the same period. The primary flow of capital is directed toward the construction of solar and wind power plants, as well as related infrastructure—high-voltage grids and storage systems. At the COP30 climate summit, world leaders reaffirmed their commitment to accelerating reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and substantially increasing renewable energy capacities by 2030. To achieve these goals, a comprehensive set of initiatives is proposed:
- Accelerating Permitting Procedures: Shortening review periods and simplifying the issuing of permits for the construction of renewable energy facilities, modernization of grids, and implementation of other low-carbon projects.
- Expanding State Support: Introducing additional incentives for "green" energy—special tariffs, tax benefits, subsidies, and government guarantees to attract more investment and reduce risks for businesses.
- Funding the Transition in Developing Countries: Increasing volumes of international financial aid to emerging market economies for the accelerated implementation of renewable energy when domestic resources are insufficient. Targeted funds are being created to make "green" projects cheaper in the most vulnerable regions.
The rapid growth of renewable energy is already leading to changes in the global energy balance. According to analytical centers, non-carbon sources (renewables together with nuclear generation) account for over 40% of global electricity generation, and this share is steadily increasing. Experts note that although short-term fluctuations may occur due to weather conditions or spikes in demand, the long-term trend is clear: clean energy is gradually displacing fossil fuels, bringing the onset of a new low-carbon era closer.
Coal: High Demand Sustains the Market, but the Peak is Near
Despite global efforts to decarbonize, the global coal market in 2025 remains one of the largest in history. Global coal consumption remains at record levels—around 8.8 to 8.9 billion tons annually, slightly exceeding last year's figures. Demand continues to grow in developing Asian economies (primarily in India and Southeast Asian countries), compensating for the decrease in coal usage in Europe and North America. According to the IEA, global coal consumption slightly declined in the first half of 2025 due to increased production from renewable sources and mild weather; however, a modest growth (~1%) is expected by year-end. Thus, 2025 will mark the third consecutive year of near-record coal combustion levels.
Coal production is also increasing—especially in China and India, which are boosting domestic production to reduce import dependence. Energy coal prices remain stable overall, as high Asian demand maintains market balance. Nevertheless, analysts believe that global coal demand has reached a "plateau" and will gradually decline in the coming years as renewable energy development accelerates and climate policies tighten.
