Judging by a number of signs, stabilization is coming to the industry. Rosstat has recorded a decrease in retail gasoline prices for five consecutive weeks. Moreover, in October 2025, the production of petroleum products in Russia grew by 6.6% compared to the previous month. Finally, on the exchanges, prices have "pulled back" from the multi-month highs of September-October.

In this logic, the lifting of the export ban was to be expected. The extension of restrictions, apparently, is related to an attempt to hedge against the possibility of new unscheduled repairs at refineries. Therefore, oil producers will have to "endure" for a couple more months. Moreover, it should not be forgotten that the moratorium on the nullification of the damping will remain in force until early May 2026.

In practice, this may lead to a new round of rising exchange prices, which will be reflected in retail. Oil producers will most likely offset external losses through the internal market.

Source: Vedomosti